New Publication Explores Future Blue Carbon Potential in Indus Delta Mangroves
C‑BLUES is pleased to highlight a new publication supported by the project, exploring the long-term dynamics and future carbon sequestration potential of mangrove ecosystems in Pakistan’s Indus Delta.
Published in Functional Ecology, the study combines field measurements, remote sensing data, and machine learning models to assess changes in above-ground biomass (AGB) in the Indus Delta mangroves between 2002 and 2022 and to project future trends through 2050.
Key Findings
The research found that mangrove biomass in the Indus Delta increased significantly over the last two decades, from an average of approximately 18 Mg/ha in 2002 to nearly 26 Mg/ha in 2022. The models further suggest that biomass could continue to increase through 2030, 2040, and 2050 if current restoration and management efforts are maintained.
The study also identified important environmental drivers of mangrove growth. Vegetation health was positively linked to biomass accumulation, while higher land surface temperatures and land-use change were associated with lower biomass levels.
Why It Matters
Mangrove forests are among the world's most valuable blue carbon ecosystems, providing climate mitigation, coastal protection, and biodiversity benefits. Understanding how their biomass changes over time is critical for assessing carbon storage potential and informing conservation and restoration strategies.
The study demonstrates how machine learning and remote sensing can improve our ability to monitor blue carbon ecosystems at large scales and help guide future management decisions.
Read the Publication
📖 Spatiotemporal dynamics and machine learning-based prediction of above-ground biomass in the Indus Delta mangroves
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.70342
This research contributes to the C‑BLUES mission of improving our understanding, monitoring, and management of blue carbon ecosystems to support effective climate action and ecosystem restoration worldwide.